Kits

TradeKit

18 commands, 4 skills, and 3 read-only agents for AI market research on Polymarket, Kalshi, and crypto with Claude Code. Find the edge, size it with Kelly, backtest your calls. Research-first and read-only by default.

TradeKit turns Claude Code into a research desk for prediction markets and crypto. It scans live markets for mispricings, tracks where the whales are moving size, sizes a bet with the correct Kelly math, and scores your track record so you know whether an edge is real. It is read-only and research-first by default, so nothing trades until you opt in with your own keys.

Commands18 (/tk-*)
Skills4
Agents3
Measured footprint23,217 tokens

Who it's for

Retail traders who already live in Claude Code and want a disciplined analyst instead of a hype machine. TradeKit works on Polymarket and Kalshi prediction markets and on crypto through ccxt. It does not promise profits, and it says so plainly: roughly 84% of Polymarket wallets lose money, edges fade once the crowd finds them, and Kelly sizing is worthless if your probability is wrong. What the kit gives you is a sharper probability and disciplined sizing, with you in the loop on every decision.

The flagship: /tk-decide

Take one market from "should I bet this?" to a sized ticket:

  1. Read the price and the smart money. Pulls the live Polymarket or Kalshi price, the order book, the whale trades over $3,000, and the largest holders.
  2. Estimate a probability you can defend. A bull case and a bear case each get a number, then a judge weighs them against base rates and the live positioning. Your number starts at the market price and only moves for a stated reason.
  3. Find the edge, then size it. Edge is your probability minus the price. Full Kelly has about a one in three chance of halving your bankroll before it doubles, so the kit stakes a quarter of Kelly and caps every bet. No edge means the price is right and you pass.

The command set

  • Research: /tk-scan, /tk-whales, /tk-holders, /tk-research, /tk-arb, /tk-watchlist
  • Decide and size: /tk-decide, /tk-portfolio, /tk-setup
  • Terminal and bot: /tk-terminal, /tk-bot, /tk-crypto, /tk-strategy
  • Track and prove: /tk-journal, /tk-backtest, /tk-calibration, /tk-report, /tk-alert

The math it gets right

The tk-edge skill carries the formulas most "AI trading" tools skip or botch: edge as your probability minus the market price, expected value, the Kelly fraction that is correct for 0-to-1 prediction-market contracts, vig removal for multi-outcome fields, and the Brier score for scoring how calibrated your forecasts actually are.

Safety and compliance

Every data engine is read-only with no order-signing code. The default mode is research or paper trading at live prices, so the kit never touches your funds. Live execution is opt-in: you supply your own keys in your environment, it defaults to a dry run that prints the order it would place, and Kalshi (a CFTC-regulated venue) is the default execution path. Polymarket is restricted in several US states, so check your own before trading. This is educational software, not financial advice.

Install

ck install tradekit
bash

Or add it as a Claude Code plugin. See Installation for the full setup.